MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kohlberg Capital, ClickSoftware and Liberty Property Trust were today's noteworthy initiations:
JMP Securities started shares of Kohlberg Capital (NASDAQ: KCAP) with an Outperform rating and $14 target. The firm believes Kohlberg Capital's alliance with Kohlberg and Company allows Kohlberg Capital to take advantage of considerable expertise. JMP Securities believes Kohlberg Capital has an attractive risk/reward ratio.
Roth Capital initiated ClickSoftware (NASDAQ: CKSW) with a Hold rating and $3.60 target and expects EPS pressure from the depreciating dollar near-term.
Liberty Property Trust (NYSE: LRY) was initiated with a Hold rating at Stifel, citing lack of internal earnings divers and fair valuation.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
Oppenheimer initiated VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) with a Perform rating and $25 target.
Merrill assumed MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) with a Neutral rating.
Goldman Sachs cut the ratings on J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP) and Nordstrom (NYSE:JWM) from "buy" to "neutral" due to the rising price of oil, according toMarketWatch.
Morgan Stanley began CostCo (NASDAQ:COST) at "equal weight" according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that JPM downgraded Sandisk (NASDAQ:SNDK) from "market perform" from "underperform".
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
In economics, inferior goods are defined as goods that are less in demand as consumers get richer but more in demand as consumers get poorer -- which of course happens when the economy slows down. Inferior goods are often the basic goods and services such as bus rides, potatoes, instant noodles and so on. And with increased demand, the price of such goods, unless regulated, can actually increase in bad times. A recent example of this is the increase in the price of rice (although other forces were at work there as well).
Well, recently we've seen a trend in retail that showcases this clearly -- discount retailers have been performing well relative to most other retailers. When retailers reported same-store sales for the month of April, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) outdid their less fortunate counterparts as they have likely taken customers away from other retailers.
The trend that started a few months ago, with car sales (definitely a normal, not an inferior good) in the U.S. softening overall, has continued and even deepened as consumers have less disposable income after inflation and gas money is taken into account. With credit hard to come by, they have turned to cheaper alternatives. To wit, today Wal-Mart -- my "inferior retailer" -- reported that first-quarter profits rose 6.9%. Conversely, Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) -- the "normal retailer" -- swung to a first-quarter net loss.
To be fair though, it's the top line that matters if I'm looking at consumers' changing habits and there WMT saw a net 10.2% sales increase while LIZ's sales grew by much less during the quarter, 4.9% -- actually, not that bad. Even AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) raised its forecast Monday. Indeed, somehow retail -- excluding auto sales of course -- has managed to hold up quite well recently despite market conditions as today's report indicates. Including autos, though, retail sales declined in April.
Unilever (NYSE: UL) is the world's second-largest maker of food and detergent, so you would expect the company to hurt with rising commodity prices. But Unilever has been proactive and has raised prices 4.8% in the quarter to offset its rising costs. In fact, the company said revenue will beat its forecast for the first time in six years on increased prices and sales of Dove soap, Hellmann's mayonnaise and Lipton tea. First-quarter net income climbed 33%, exceeding analysts' estimates.
As expected, April retail sales have so far indeed been strong, although there are some ares weakness is seen.
Costco (NASDAQ: COST) shares are up 1.2% in premarket trading after the warehouse club retailer said April same-store sales increased 8%, beating analysts' expectations of 6.1%.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) shares are also higher in premarket trading, up 1.8%, after the world's largest retailer, said same-store sales climbed 3.2%, beating the 2.1% forecast by analysts. Staying with Wal-Mart for a moment, it said it plans to invest millions in Canada and open more supercenters.
The more luxurious items, though, such as lingerie sold at Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) have seen a slowdown as the company said that April same-store sales fell 5%, falling short of the 2.3% sales decline analysts had anticipated.
These diversified funds have provided superior returns historically and are relatively conservative in their stock-picking and philosophy. Unlike with the specialty funds, you don't necessarily need to be a contrarian buying these. Following are some of those that made the list Morningstar recommends.
Food inflation is getting out of control. Prices for everything from cereal to pastries have jumped. Pizza shop owners are getting squeezed by soaring costs for milk, flour and cheese. Rice prices alone have soared 68 percent since the start of the year, according to Reuters. Think of that the next time you order takeout from your favorite Chinese restaurant. No wonder demand for Food Stamps is at a record.
Beginning next weekmore than 130 million Americans will open their mailboxes to find tax rebate checks, ranging from $600 to $1,200 per household. Retailers across the country desperately want a piece of that action in a U.S. economy flirting with recession, and the sales promotions tied to the government cash injection are already coming fast and furious. Big-box chains are devising crafty ways to coax stimulus checks into their cash registers.
"Finding its way onto the short-term bullish list is discount retailer Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST), our 'focus stock of the week'," says Chris Johnson in his contrarian advisor service, Insightful Investor.
"The warehouse giant is currently seeing a positive mix of technical strength along with growing pessimism that makes it a potential outperformer. Costco is one company that has maintained a level of demand not seen throughout the bulk of the retailing sector.
"COST's core business, which caters to small businesses and households willing to buy in bulk, has maintained strength despite the slowing economy. In fact, the company's latest earnings report, released March 5, beat analyst expectations by 23%.
"Reflective of its fundamental strength, COST's stock price has remained a relative strength leader by trading above its 50-day moving average. The equity has outperformed not only most of its peers in the retail group, but the overall market as well.
The fall of Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) as a momentum stock has been just as spectacular as its rise.
After a drop of around 40% in trading this morning, shares of Crocs have fallen below their IPO price -- after closing at a split-adjusted price of $12.58 on the first day of trading, Crocs shares are down to $10.60, giving investors who bought on the first day a total return of about about -16%. That's amazing because at the company's high of $75.21 reached on Halloween of 2007, investors were up more than 500%.
I've always thought Crocs was a garbage stock. In February of last year, I wrote about Crocs as one of three retail fad stocks to beware of. Based on my prior posts on Crocs, here are the lessons I think investors can learn from watching the decline of Crocs' share price:
On a final note, Crocs' beaten down share price might finally make it worth another look, now that expectations have been moderated.
Futures turned lower this morning after a weaker-than-expected earnings report from General Electric (NYSE: GE). The company said first-quarter earnings fell 8% to 44 cents a share, well below analysts' expectations of 51 cents. CEO Jeffrey Immelt blamed the disappointing results on declines in financial services earnings, saying extraordinary disruption in the capital markets in March resulted in an inability to complete asset shares.
Stocks rallied yesterday for the first time in three days, spurred by a drop in weekly unemployment claims and some good news from discount retailers Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). The Dow Jones industrial average rose 54.72 points or 0.44%; the S&P 500 was up 6.06 points or 0.45%; and the Nasdaq Composite, boosted by Takeda Pharmaceuticals' deal to acquire Millennium Pharmaceuticals, rose 29.58 points or 1.27%.
Genentech (NYSE: DNA) said Q1 net income rose 12% to $790 million, or 74 cents a share, from $706 million, or 66 cents, a year earlier, although sales of anti-tumor drug Avastin disappointed.
Stock futures were lower this morning amid fears of weak earnings reports and jitters about oil prices, which continue to rise today.
Stocks fell Wednesday after a lowered outlook from UPS, seen as an economic bellwether, and oil briefly topping $112 a barrel, bringing the Dow industrials down 49 points or 0.4%, the Nasdaq Composite down 26 points or 1.1%; and the S&P 11 points or 0.8% lower.
On the economic calendar today, the weekly jobless claims data for the week ending April 5 is due out this morning at 8:30 a.m. EDT. According to Bloomberg, claims are expected to be around 386,000, and anything above 400,000 will fuel concerns about the weakening of the job market. Investors will also be watching March chain store sales reports. The day began with an upbeat report from Costco (NASDAQ: COST), whose sales rose 7%. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) then reported its same-store sales rose 0.7%, which was below analysts' estimates of 1%, but said it expects better April figures. The company said its inventory in US stores is well managed.
Dupont (NYSE: DD) said in a statement today that its first quarter earnings topped forecasts.
Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX), that once high-flying rubberized sandal-shoe maker, has been dogged by rumors that it is selling products to discount retail giant Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST).
Looking to set the record straight, Crocs issued a press release:
We have not sold Crocs-branded products to Costco nor have we authorized any of our customers to sell our products to Costco; however, we have discovered instances where we believe our products were being sold indirectly to Costco and we promptly terminated those relationships upon learning of that behavior. We are continuing to take aggressive measures to prevent this from happening.
Well that settles it, right? End of story? Hardly. Think about it: Crocs' retailers aren't selling stuff to Costco on the cheap because it's been flying off the shelves. If they could sell it at retail prices, you have to think they'd do that.
So Crocs isn't selling stuff to Costco: but the presence of its products in those stores is indicative of a glut of product at the retail level. And that's hardly bullish. Why would those retailers reorder when they can't sell what they got without Costco?
With recession fears, housing market worries and credit concerns, retailers have been facing tough times, especially during the holiday winter season of December and January when sales came with weak numbers. But on the heels of these disappointing results, retailers got a beam of hope as February's sales numbers showed a surprising increase.
Encouraging news for retailers showing a rebound in consumer spending during the past month came after world's largest retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) announced a rise of 2.6% for its February same-store sales. The company said that its same-store sales during the period were helped by strong gains from gas, food and flat-panel TVs. Analysts were expecting the retailer show an increase of 1.1% for its same-store sales, according to Thomson Financial.
Among other retailers that showed a rebound in February sales were Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) and Saks Inc. (NYSE: SKS), both of which reported stronger-than-expected gains. Apparel retailers Pacific Sunwear of California Inc. (NASDAQ: PSUN) also reported earnings results exceeding estimates of 6% sales growth last month.
For Limited Brands Inc. (NYSE: LTD), though, February didn't come with positive results. The company stated that higher energy and food prices put pressure on consumers who focused on necessities.
Stock futures were lower early in the morning, indicating another low start on Wall Street as concerns remain about the economic slowdown and the credit crisis. The dollar hitting a new low against the euro and oil reaching new record highs didn't boost investors' sentiment. Upcoming interest rate decision by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will likely have an impact this side of the pond.
On Wednesday stocks started with significant declines only to rebound late getting a boost from the technology sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its first rise in five sessions of 41 points, or 0.34%, the S&P 500 added nearly 7 points, or 0.52%, and the Nasdaq composite climbed 12 points, or 0.55%.
Not much economic data is to be released today. At 8:30 a.m., weekly jobless initial claims is due and at 10:00 a.m., January pending home sales will be reported.
What investors may watch closely is monthly sales figures that many retailers should report today. Economists expect February same-store sales in the U.S. to rise 0.5% to 1%, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, the worst since 2003, when sales rose 0.9%. High gas prices combined with a weak housing and credit market influenced consumers' decision. While Costco (NYSE: COST) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) may have benefited from consumers being price conscious, most other retailers have not.
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MOST NOTEWORTHY: Kohlberg Capital, ClickSoftware and Liberty Property Trust were today's noteworthy initiations:
In economics, 
Reports that
The fall of 
With recession fears, housing market worries and credit concerns, retailers have been facing tough times, especially during the holiday winter season of December and January when sales came with weak numbers. But on the heels of these disappointing results, retailers got a beam of hope as February's sales numbers showed a surprising increase. 
Comfort Zone Investing: One thriving area of real estate: Apartments
Just how high will U.S. gasoline prices rise?
Nordstrom and Kohl's post smaller-than-expected Q1 profit declines
