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There's a chill in the air and a slight up-tick in confidence. Holiday discounts are coming a bit earlier, too. For retailers, this has been a great combination, leading to the second consecutive month in which retail sales increased.

This follows more than a year of drops. Consumers aren't going crazy, but they are loosening their wallets a little bit. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, and the coming holiday season is where the action is -- for the retail sector and, consequently, for everyone else.

Halloween, though not the blockbuster holiday that Christmas is, still results in some additional spending on the part of consumers as they stock up on candy and costumes, and maybe take in a scary movie or two. With those treats in mind here are some stocks that may give investors sweet dreams -- and hopefully not nightmares.

As is well known, candy is all the rage at Halloween, and among the largest candy stocks are Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) and Cadbury PLC (NYSE: CBY). Last week, Hershey reported third-quarter earnings rose 30% despite weaker volumes affected by higher prices for its sweets. Last year's numbers also included special charges. Still the company said it expects full-year earnings to be ahead of Wall Street forecasts. In 2010, the Pennsylvania company said it expects earnings excluding items to rise 6% to 8%. The stock has a forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio of 16 and a current dividend yield of 3.1%.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) is realizing that many of its customers are still living on hard times these days, even the news that the economy is rebounding. That doesn't mean lost jobs will pop back any time soon, and as such, the wholesale retailer will be accepting food stamps at all of its U.S. locations.

People need to eat, and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) sells food. People need to cover themselves, and Wal-Mart sells apparel. You get the idea – the biggest needs may be thin-margin, and their all sure things. Wal-Mart plays in the inevitable, which makes its latest market entry a little less surprising than you might think. Wal-Mart is pushing caskets and urns – depending on how you want your remains preserved. What is a bit shocking, however, is that the brick-and-mortar player is selling its death gear online.

Wal-Mart is using its low price strategy to beat funeral homes, which have seemingly forever been the biggest sales channel for caskets. Prices start at $999 for the low end models and go up to the Sienna Bronze Casket at $3,199. Except for this last one, all models sell for under $2,000 ... and all product ships within 48 hours. The funeral homes are over a barrel on this one, since federal law requires them to accept third-party caskets.

Wal-Mart is supplied by Star Legacy Funeral Network, and both are apparently happy with the first week's sales.

The Bentonville-based retail giant is not the first to get into the gloomy business of bodies. Discount retailer Costco (NASDAQ: COST) is already in the online casket business.

Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) new operating system, Windows 7, is set to be released on October 22, 2009, but it's unlikely to have an impact on PC prices. So, if you're feeling the urge to rush out and buy a new box, try to hold out until the end of the month. You'll get a bit more life out of it.

Fortunately, PC prices aren't expected to get much lower, so the entire supply chain -- from chips to software -- has nowhere to go but up. The effect, though, has been to put some serious pressure on manufacturers and retailers to keep from screwing up the release.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reported a surprise Q3 profit due to cost cutting; revenue topped estimates as well.
• Avis Budget Group Inc. (NYSE: CAR) said a proposed offering of $250 million in notes could reduce earnings.
• Clorox Co. (NYSE: CLX) earnings prospects garnered it an upgrade from one analyst.
• Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) earnings prospects resulted in an upgrade from one analyst.
• Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) lower Q4 earnings topped analysts' expectations, lifting shares.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) higher Q4 earnings beat analysts' estimates but sales were just OK.

BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ - option chain) stock is trading lower today after the company reported its same-store sales slipped 0.5 percent in September. Analysts were expecting a 1 percent decline, but traders saw competitor, Costco (NASDAQ: COST) post a 1% rise in September same-store sales and wanted more from BJ. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on BJ.

This morning, BJ opened at $35.90. So far today the stock has hit a high of $36.13 and a low of $35.90. As of 11:20, BJ is trading at $36.10, down 96 cents (-2.6%). The chart for BJ looks bullish and S&P gives BJ a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

There is an article in The Wall Street Journal caught my eye this lovely Tuesday morning, as Sara Murray took a look at how families cut back on spending in 2008. According to the article, consumer prices increased nearly 4% when compared to 2007; but pre-tax income increased less than 1% - or $472 for an average family. Yes, the average American family made $472 more dollars in 2008 than it did in 2007. Breaking it down even further, the overall spending per consumer unit (which includes families, single people, or cohabitants) increased 1.7%, or $848, in 2008. This was the smallest spending increase since 2003. The biggest drop was in apparel spending (4.3%) while families spent 8.1% more on eating at home (which computes out to $279 per family).

Wall Street is cheering the latest earnings report from Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST), with the shares adding more than 3% within the first hour of trading. This morning, as Tom Johansmeyer reported, the wholesale club reported a 6% slide in fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, but the results nevertheless exceeded analysts' expectations.

In the wake of COST's report, analyst Brian Sozzi of Wall Street Strategies reiterated his Buy rating and $66 price target on the equity. "In our view, 4Q09 will go a long way in supporting a higher valuation for Costco," wrote Sozzi in a research note this morning. "The company has managed to control costs, drive traffic to its warehouses consistently throughout the economic downturn, paid $300 million in annual dividends in FY09 (payout ratio of 26.0% second to only Wal-Mart in the sector), and has catalysts on the horizon to showcase earnings power above currently modeled for consensus EPS."

Costco's (NASDAQ: COST) profits are off 6% for its fiscal fourth quarter. A stronger dollar and increased employee benefits costs are cited as the reasons. Nonetheless, the retailer did beat analyst expectations.

The company, which operates warehouse clubs, pulled in earnings of $374 million (85 cents per share) for the quarter ending August 30, 2009. While this is down from $398 million (90 cents per share) a year earlier, it was good enough to top the 77 cents per share that analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast.

Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST), the popular warehouse store that competes with BJ's Wholesale Club (NYSE: BJ) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), will report Q4 earnings on Wednesday, October 7. How will the company do?

Don't look for growth, my friends. According to Earnings.com, estimates from Wall Street say that Costco will produce 77 cents per share in income. Unfortunately, that represents a 16% drop in the metric. Surprising? Maybe a little. After all, we're still suffering a bad economy, and you figure that people would want to cut costs by leveraging the bulk buying power of the Costco business model.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares rose after it reaffirmed its full-year earnings and sales outlook.
• Automatic Data Processing Inc. (NASDAQ: ADP) will have low double-digit EPS growth, predicts one analyst.
• AutoZone Inc. (NYSE: AZO) posted a decline in earnings but a small rise in sales, sending shares lower.
• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) posted better-than-expected Q2 earnings and higher revenue.
• CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) rallied to a new 52-week high after topping analysts' Q2 earnings expectations.
• Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL) reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance.

Analyst upgrades:

• Roth Capital upgraded MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $90 from $70, citing encouraging Q2 results, new product cycle catalysts, a lift from Europe, and cost reductions.
• William Blair upgraded Costco (NASDAQ: COST) to Outperform from Market Perform after meeting with management as it believes sales and earnings could beat expectations over the next year.
• Credit Suisse upgraded Novellus (NASDAQ: NVLS) to Outperform from Neutral and raised its target to $29 from $23. The firm cites higher Samsung capex forecast, high leverage, and low expectations.
• Home Properties (NYSE: HME) and Equity Residential (NYSE: EQR) were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBC Capital, while Douglas Emmett (NYSE: DEI) and Duke Realty (NYSE: DRE) were raised to Market Perform from Underperform.
• Agilent (NYSE: A) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
• Cytec Industries (NYSE: CYT) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.

Costco's stock has trended up nicely, from $47.21 when first recommended on May 19, 2009, hence it's not as cheap as it was then, but a case can be made to establish/add to a position on a pull-back to $53-55. Therefore, I'm reiterating my Buy rating.

Costco (NASDAQ: COST) remains a value-oriented consumer warehouse with an appropriate middle-income, near-upscale product mix that's likely to draw in many "suddenly just middle class" consumers whose incomes have been constrained/lowered by the current economic era. Translation: market share gains for COST.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the action that is linked to the futures markets, such as oil, is distorting rational analysis.

Maybe one day we can escape the commodity linkage and begin to trade on the fundamentals again, something that seems more distant now than any time I can recall. We are totally marching to gold, to oil, to copper, and not the fundamentals.

Throughout the era in which China has become a superpower and hedge funds have become the super arbiters or what goes up or down, we have been stuck with this fairly bogus linkage that corrupts trading and makes a mockery out of some of the most important financial analysis out there, the actual attempts to discover what's really happening at companies.